March 27, 2017 - Hamas, Syria, Hezbollah: should Israel deter proactively or avoid provocation?

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Yossi Alpher is an independent security analyst. He is the former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University, a former senior official with the Mossad, and a former IDF intelligence officer. Views and positions expressed here are those of the writer, and do not necessarily represent APN's views and policy positions.

This week, Alpher discusses Hamas' accusation that the Mossad assassinated a senior militant Friday in the heart of Gaza City; whether the killing could lead to escalation and possibly a new conflict with Hamas in Gaza; if Israeli involvement in the killing would reflect a more aggressive deterrent policy; the application of this deterrent policy on Israel's northern fronts; and the dangers of this more aggressive Israeli policy.

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News Nosh 3.26.17

APN's daily news review from Israel
Sunday March 26, 2017
 
Quote of the day:
"But one minute and 33 seconds after the video begins, something happens that shows that, as opposed to what the police claim, (riot policeman Moshe) Cohen works in an organization where violence against civilians has become routine, acceptable. In those last 16 seconds, a few of his colleagues from the unit enter the picture and see him acting violently, kicking (Palestinian truck driver) Shweiki in the back and knocking him to the ground, bleeding from his head."
--Haaretz+ police correspondent writes that violence actually is part of the culture of Israel police.*
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APN/ Peace Now in the News: March 13-24, 2017

Aljazeera: March 23, 2017
Israel Built 2,630 Illegal Homes in West Bank last year,” Peace Now cites that 14,017 homes were started when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s returned to office in 2009. 

i24 News: March 23, 2017
US Asked Israel to Halt Building Outside Settlement Blocs, Impose Quota: Report,” Peace Now reports that Israel’s settlement construction plans in 2016 were the second highest number in 15 years. 

Times of Israel: March 22, 2017
West Bank Settlement Construction Up in 2016 - Report,” Peace Now warns that the sharp increase in settlements shows the Palestinians and the international community that Israel is not looking for two-state solution.

Arutz 7: March 22, 2017
"Construction in Judea and Samaria rises 40% in 2016," Peace Now says construction in West Bank settlements increased by 40% in 2016.

Jordan Times: March 22, 2017
"Sharp rise in Israeli settlement projects in 2016," According to Peace Now, 2016 saw a sharp 40% increase in Israeli settlement construction.

The Forward: March 15, 2017
"Dovish Jewish Groups ‘Heartbroken’ At Prospect Of Being Banned From Israel," APN seeks clarifications from the Israeli government regarding new "Entry Law"

News Nosh 3.24.17

APN's daily news review from Israel
Friday March 24, 2017
 
Quote of the day:
"If the situation were reversed and this behavior were directed at a Jewish policeman, the sanctions and the response would have been immediate." 
--An Arab-Israeli policeman expressed concern and sadness that no arrests and no condemnations were made by Police Commanders against the two Israeli Riot Police who assaulted him at a Purim party for police officers, which he attended.* 
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Statement on David Friedman's Confirmation as Ambassador to Israel

The U.S. Senate today confirmed, by a very narrow margin, the nomination of David Friedman to be America’s ambassador to Israel. 

Americans for Peace Now (APN) strongly opposed Friedman’s confirmation and worked hard to thwart it.

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News Nosh 3.23.17

APN's daily news review from Israel
Thursday March 23, 2017
 
Quote of the day:
"The man who is unable to read an intelligence document with more than nine paragraphs is not interested in the details, in the history, in the complexity and in the drives of the region’s people. His vision is to see towers rising on both sides of the Green Line, with water fountains and marble everywhere. That’s what he’s familiar with."
--Yedioth's Washington correspondent looks at what motivates US President Donald Trump to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.*
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Settlement Bloc(k)s on the Road to Peace

The_Separation_wall350x517_in_Ni'linConstruction inside the settlement “blocs” isn’t a non-issue. When Israeli and Palestinian negotiators start talking seriously about settlements, they won’t be spending a lot of time debating the future of isolated settlements, because these settlements would unquestionably have to be removed under a peace agreement. The real negotiations, the very difficult ones, will be over the so-called “settlement blocs”: their size and contours, the way they will be connected to Israel, and the land swaps that will be used to offset them. This is why settlement expansion in these areas is equally if not more harmful to the two-state solution than construction in the isolated settlements.” (APN’s They Say, We Say”)

They Say, We Say

"Why shouldn’t Israel be able to build in areas that everyone – including the Palestinians - knows Israel will keep in any future peace agreement?"

"Palestinians act as if settlements are everywhere, but the truth is that most of the West Bank - the historic heart of Eretz Yisrael - is still in Palestinian hands. All Israel really insists on keeping is the major built-up areas, the settlement blocs."

"The U.S. should get Israel to agree to limit settlement activity to construction inside the blocs only."

"Why does the Left oppose construction in settlement blocs?"

"The term 'settlement bloc' merely describes an objective reality on the ground."

"Keeping settlement blocs is necessary for Israel’s security."

"Even the Palestinians know that settlement blocs are going to become part of Israel."

"If Israel stops building in settlement blocs its just rewarding anti-peace and anti-Israel extremism like BDS."

"American Jews have no business telling Israel not to build in the settlement blocs."

 

APN analysis
Op-ed by APN's Ori Nir, 4/20/2017: Israel’s Settlement Blocs Block Prospects For Peace
United Nations Security Council – 10/14/16: Statement by APN’s Lara Friedman
Op-ed by APN’s Lara Friedman and Shalom Achshav’s Hagit Ofran, 5/16/08: Settlement Stumbling Blocs
Settlements in Focus 5/12/08: Settlement Bloc(kage)s on the Road to Peace"
Lara Friedman in Huffington Post: Bibi’s ‘Anti-Solutionism’ as Cover for ‘Anti-Solution’ (11/4/15) and
Settlement ‘Solutionism’ Is Not the Answer (11/30/15)
Lara Friedman in Foreign Policy 8/31/10: Glib talk about settlements harms peace efforts

They Say, We Say: "American Jews have no business telling Israel not to build in the settlement blocs."

They Say We Say We know that pro-Israel does not mean blindly supporting policies that are irrational, reckless, and counter-productive. Pro-Israel means supporting policies that are consistent with Israel's interests and promote its survival as a Jewish, democratic state.

You've heard the arguments of the religious and political right-wing, and so have we. They've had their say. Now, we'll have ours.

Go HERE for all installments of APN's "They Say, We Say"

Are settlements really a problem?

They Say:

American Jews have no business telling Israel not to build in the settlement blocs.

We Say:

The American Jewish community bears a heavy burden of responsibility for the situation today in the occupied territories. For decades, American Jews and our community leaders and organizations have made excuses for Israeli policies, including with respect to settlements, and have worked to inoculate Israel from criticism and pressure. For decades, elements within the American Jewish community have actively supported and funded settlers and settlement projects whose clear mission is to prevent a peace agreement with the Palestinians and obstruct a two-state solution.

Now, 50 years into the occupation, it is time for the U.S. Jewish community to, belatedly, start to act responsibly – before it is too late. American Jews who care about Israel must end their head-in-the-sand approach to Israeli government policies, especially with respect to settlements. Israel’s future and its position in the world are in real jeopardy today, in no small part due to a U.S. Jewish community that has overlooked, made excuses for, funded (directly and indirectly) and otherwise enabled its self-defeating, immoral pro-settlement policies. Supporting Israel today means speaking truth to our Israeli brothers and sisters and to the Israeli government, and letting them know that American Jews, like the rest of the world, cannot rationalize or accept permanent Israeli occupation, and that we won’t be taken in by alternative facts or cynical manipulations meant to convince us that settlement expansion inside or outside the “settlement blocs” is consistent with peace and the achievement of a two-state solution.

They Say, We Say: "If Israel stops building in settlement blocs it's just rewarding anti-peace and anti-Israel extremism like BDS."

They Say We Say We know that pro-Israel does not mean blindly supporting policies that are irrational, reckless, and counter-productive. Pro-Israel means supporting policies that are consistent with Israel's interests and promote its survival as a Jewish, democratic state.

You've heard the arguments of the religious and political right-wing, and so have we. They've had their say. Now, we'll have ours.

Go HERE for all installments of APN's "They Say, We Say"

Are settlements really a problem?

They Say:

Why should Israel stop building in settlement blocs (or anywhere else)? Unless and until the Palestinians prove they really want peace, Israel should not make any concessions. Indeed, concessions now would just feed Palestinian intransigence and reward anti-peace and anti-Israel extremism like BDS.

We Say:

Israel needs to stop building settlements and end the occupation urgently. It must do so not as a concession to the Palestinians but for Israel’s own sake.

Israel has for most of the past 50 years shown to the world the face of a nation that does not truly seek peace. This period has been punctuated by various efforts to reach peace, the most serious of which was cut short by the assassination of a courageous peace-seeking Israeli prime minister by an Israeli extremist seeking to sabotage peace. Subsequent peace efforts have been undermined and discredited by the refusal of Israeli governments to put an end to policies on the ground that perpetuate and entrench the occupation and expand settlements, including with the trick called “settlement blocs.”

Rather than show it was serious about wanting peace, successive Israeli governments have – for reasons of ideology or political expediency – exploited the asymmetry of power in this conflict to turn peace talks into a fig leaf to cover actions on the ground that are antithetical to the achievement of peace and a two-state solution. By their own actions and statements they undercut talks, eroded the credibility of negotiations as a means of achieving an agreement in the future, and undermined their Palestinian partners. Today, members of Israel’s government are openly celebrating the demise of the two-state solution and are dropping even the pretense of supporting negotiated peace with the Palestinians.

In this way, for nearly 50 years a vast amount of Israeli resources have been squandered on the self-defeating and immoral settlement enterprise, including the ever-expanding “settlement blocs.” Five decades of Israeli military energies have been hijacked and morale eroded as military service has become an exercise in the subjugation and policing of the lives of Palestinian civilians. For 50 years occupation policies have generated more Palestinian grievances, anger and hatred, sowing the seeds for future conflict and violence and alienating potential allies regionally and internationally.

Occupation and settlements – including the “settlement blocs” – are destroying Israel. They have hijacked Israeli politics, and undermined Israel’s own interests and values. They are pushing Israel toward becoming an international pariah and are threatening Israel’s survival as a Jewish state and a democracy. Promoting and defending the occupation and settlements has eroded Israel’s claims to military self-defense, while leaving Israel increasingly demonized, defensive, and isolated – a nation of many virtues that has come to be viewed by much of the world exclusively through the prism of the occupation.

They Say, We Say: "Even the Palestinians know that settlement blocs are going to become part of Israel."

They Say We Say We know that pro-Israel does not mean blindly supporting policies that are irrational, reckless, and counter-productive. Pro-Israel means supporting policies that are consistent with Israel's interests and promote its survival as a Jewish, democratic state.

You've heard the arguments of the religious and political right-wing, and so have we. They've had their say. Now, we'll have ours.

Go HERE for all installments of APN's "They Say, We Say"

Are settlements really a problem?

They Say:

Opposition to construction in settlement blocs is purely manufactured outrage. Even the Palestinians know that settlement blocs are going to become part of Israel.

We Say:

Based on past negotiations, including the unofficial Geneva Initiative process (which yielded the Geneva Accords, the only detailed agreement ever achieved between Israelis and Palestinians) it seems likely that Palestinians will be willing to accept a peace agreement under which Israel retains control of some settlements, but only in return for (a) the evacuation of all other settlements and (b) land swaps, equal in size and quality, to compensate for the land kept by Israel. This is an important principle that, in the context of serious peace negotiations, could play a key role in the achievement of a viable final status agreement. However, it is disingenuous to cherry-pick this principle in order to justify new settlement construction outside the context of such negotiations and absent a peace agreement.

Under the Geneva Accords, the Palestinians (many of whom were and remain senior and influential political figures) agreed to Israel's annexation of some settlement blocs, in exchange for equal land swaps. However, such a negotiated agreement is far different from Israel acting unilaterally to annex territory, and it is important to note that the areas the Palestinian agreed would be ceded to Israel were far more modest than the expansive blocs of settlements and surrounding lands that Israel has de facto annexed with the security barrier. Indeed, the Geneva experience makes clear that any serious peace effort will have to recognize that settlement "fingers" stretching deep into the West Bank (like the Ariel and Kedumim blocs), and inflated settlement 'balloons" that effective block territorial contiguity of the West Bank (like the E-1/Ma'ale Adumim bloc) are inconsistent with the achievement of a peace agreement or the establishment of a viable Palestinian state. And, notably, further construction also threatens to make any agreement impossible, given that Israel does not have sufficient land reserves adjacent to the Green Line to compensate for all the areas that it wants to keep in the West Bank through one-to-one land swaps. If such land swaps become impossible, an agreement will likely be impossible as well.

Regardless of who may end up in control of or with sovereignty over these areas under a future peace agreement, if Israel is serious about wanting to make peace with the Palestinians, the future of these areas must be left to negotiations and not determined by unilateral acts. Unilateral acts by Israel only undermine those Palestinians who remain committed to a peaceful, negotiated solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and who still support a two state solution. Such acts also waste goodwill towards Israel around the world, fuel boycotts and other activism targeting both Israel and the settlements, and pointlessly consume valuable Israeli political capital.

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